Serra's lead rises; Marta risks missing run-off

The latest Datafolha poll shows Jose Serra and Paulo Maluf rising in Sao Paulo - and current mayor Marta Suplicy appearing to stall.

With 30% support (give or take 3%), Serra's main challenger appears to be Maluf, with 24%. If Suplicy doesn't do something soon, she could find herself out of the second round run-off in late October.

As I've said here before, Marta's difficulty is that as the incumbent she has a record to run on. But the fact must also be that her Workers Party (PT) has been reaping plenty of bad press recently, mainly from further up, in the federal government. From allegations about President Lula's drinking habits to claims of illicitly gained campaign funds and the Senate's decision last week to defeat the government over the minimum wage, Marta may well be the victim of actions beyond her control.