PSDB to roar back in Sao Paulo?

Probably the most important election result which will be watched with interest in Brazil this year will be that for mayor of Sao Paulo. Despite having been mayor for two years the Workers Party's Marta Suplicy may feel aggrieved that she is bobbing along at around 20% in the polls according to Datafolha. But it is a crowded field at the moment.

Even taking out some of the other candidates doesn't really seem to make much difference, except when the right-wing Paulo Maluf is excluded - and then his support all goes to the front-runner, former presidential candidate and Social Democrat (PSDB) and heath minister, Jose Serra, who has just over a quarter share of the vote.

Generally the figures seem relatively static - voters don't seem to have changed their attitudes much when it comes to which candidates they reject outright, other than former mayor, Paulo Maluf. His rejection ratings have risen by 6 points to half the electorate in the two months to May. If he was to drop out of the race the only beneficiary would be Jose Serra. Whether the two can work out a deal remains to be seen. But with the election still fur months away, I doubt there will be much attention given by voters until August at least.

Good news for Marta and the Workers Party though: despite the scandals and problems which have been hitting Lula's government over the last few months, more than 60% of Paulistas say that their perception of the administration in Brasilia won't influence the way they vote in October.