Sao Paulo polling

Back to the grind of Brazilian elections. While I was away I see Ibope published their monthly poll on Sao Paulo. Since the end of June the Social Democrat, Jose Serra, has seen his lead fall 6 points to 24%. Meanwhile the incumbent, Marta Suplicy, has seen her stock rise by 7 to 23%, putting her in second place. The right-winger, Paulo Maluf, has dropped off the pace, from 21% to 18%.

However, a word of caution: there is a 4% margin of error, which could mean Marta being in the lead or behind Serra by as much as 9%. Anyway, that doesn't really matter, specially in the first round. What does count is the run-off, which would presumably be between Marta and Serra. In this case Serra would win, by 50% to 32%, with Serra picking up most of those votes from Maluf's supporters.

So it's not just Britain where supposedly 'progressive' parties depend on Tory votes...